Obsoco and Fabrique de la Cité sought to understand the representations and aspirations of the French in terms of mobility until 2050. Both are far from matching.
If France, like the rest of Europe, is committed to achieving carbon neutrality in 2050, it is far from being able to imagine what this goal concretely implies in all sectors, especially in transport. It is particularly difficult to decarbonize, and is also a major source of public tension.
With the support of the Fabrique de la Cité, the Observatory of Society and Consumption (Obsoco) therefore embarked on a prospective exercise to try to understand how the French approach their travels at this time and what they find most desirable. The partners constructed three scenarios delivered to a representative sample of 4,000 people aged 18 to 75 in July 2023, through twelve propositions for each.
Collective: desirable, but not very credible
The version that has the most support, i.e. half of those surveyed, is based on mobility pooling. Developed, reimagined and implemented throughout France, less than fifteen minutes’ walk from home, public transport connects and opens up the entire territory, even to the most isolated areas. Their prices are adjusted to everyone’s income, making them accessible to everyone. Taxis and VTC are available everywhere at low prices.
Bicycles, cars, vans Individual modes of travel are shared within co-ownership, businesses or public places. The latter thus become hubs of mobility. Users find there efficient and cheap rental services, but also services and small businesses. Use takes precedence over possession. If this prospect seems attractive, it is also considered not very credible: only 22% of those surveyed see it actually happening in reality.
Sobriety is not such a bad grade
Can salvation then come from composure? The second scenario considers this alternative. It represents a society in which the behavior and aspirations of its members have shifted to the local and to a certain form of frugality, accompanied by a slowdown in activities, especially travel. In order to achieve a better quality of life again, while preserving the environment and biodiversity, walking and cycling became the majority. River shuttles have also increased. Both urban and rural areas are equipped with an efficient bicycle network.
City centers have become large pedestrian or cycling areas. Shops and services were moved close to residential areas. Thanks to remote work, daily activities are performed on a reduced scale. Take up free time, concept slow journey is now more attractive than air transport and distant destinations. Private planes were banned. Carbon Pass also limits and quantifies CO emissions2 related to travel. A third of the French interviewed (38%) express themselves positively in this vision. Moreover, 64% of them want to slow down their daily pace, 73% believe that the world around them is changing too quickly, and 33% would like to travel less. But only 32% find this synopsis really credible.
Techno: Acceptable but unappealing
There remains recourse to technology and innovation. In this last scenario, one travels in rechargeable electric cars, especially on induction highways, sometimes in an autonomous vehicle, in a flying car or in an ultra-fast train on air cushions. This mobility is fast, efficient and clean. Digital applications help to quickly plan and book intermodal trips. Virtual reality makes it possible to work and do more activities from home, including virtual travel. If this version is considered the most probable by 46% of the interviewees, it does not make them dream. Only 12% describe it as desirable.
A change that emphasizes more than ever the need for a just and coordinated transition. Especially since the wishes of the French are very far from homogeneous in terms of forced travel: half say they are willing to extend their travel time to choose a place of residence that suits them, while the other half prefer to stay close to their places of activity to limit their travel. In the combination of all scenarios, the most preferred proposal according to the interviews is that of increasingly self-sufficient villages and towns, followed by public transport accessible to all financials and renewed railway lines in rural areas. The least desirable prospects are those of the development of virtual reality that will allow people to travel less often, of flying cars and developed air taxis, of allocating each person with a carbon pass.
Article published on May 23, 2024