First of all, let me apologize if you didn’t like the title. I’ve always been a fan of Google products, especially their mobile development efforts.
When it comes to popular cross-platform mobile development frameworks like Xamarin, React Native and Flutter, my preference leans heavily towards Flutter. This preference is partly due to Google’s involvement and partly due to the growing popularity of Flutter, as evidenced by recent statistics of questions asked on Stack Overflow.
However, an unexpected event recently occurred: Google fired teammates from the Flutter and Dart teams. This surprised me and made me think about the possible reasons for this decision.
It does not appear to be a widespread restructuring, as it seems to have affected only certain areas. This suggests investment prioritization and a phase-out strategy, as Google spokesman Alex Garca-Kummert said: As we’ve said, we’re investing responsibly in our company’s highest priorities and in the significant opportunities available to us.
Upon investigation, I discovered that this was not an isolated incident. Last year, Google already fired part of the Fuchsia team that builds this native Flutter operating system. This leads me to believe that these actions are part of a planned strategy.
In light of these recent events and emerging trends, I am increasingly uncertain about the future of Flutter. Let me share my perspective, starting with why Flutter came together in the first place.
1. Flutter was probably Google’s backup plan
In 2010, Oracle sued Google over its use of Java, particularly in Android. This legal battle lasted for years. Despite the litigation, Android continued to thrive in the early 2010s and remains a key platform for Google to reach mobile users and expand its technological influence. A defeat in the case of Oracle v. Google could have serious consequences for Google in the mobile phone business.
Google therefore had to develop a strategy to reduce its dependence on Java. The adoption of Kotlin as a first class citizen in 2017 was an important milestone. This decision ensured the continuation of Android development regardless of the outcome of Oracle’s lawsuit against Google, thereby preserving Google’s position in the mobile market.
It is clear that at the time the decision to elevate Kotlin to a first class citizen seemed hasty to me, especially considering how unprepared it was in Android Studio 3.0. I detailed this concern in an article I wrote at the time.
Relying solely on Kotlin is risky, as it is a language developed by JetBrains, not Google. To mitigate this risk, Google tried to establish another option based on a language that is entirely its own.
Back in 2015, Google outlined plans to approach mobile development without Java using the Dart programming language and a framework known as Sky, which later evolved into Flutter. Flutter was officially released in 2017, coinciding with Kotlin’s designation as a first-class citizen for Android development. This strategic move by Google provided an alternative solution, providing more flexibility and control in the Android development ecosystem.
From 2017 to date, in my opinion, both Kotlin and Flutter have seen significant success, which leads me to believe that both will remain prominent for the foreseeable future.
However, recent trends and incidents suggest that Google may ultimately prioritize one over the other, potentially eliminating the secondary option. This is evident from the events described below.
2. Kotlin was more successful
Since Kotlin was announced as a first-class citizen for Android development, Google and JetBrains have continued to improve it to the point where Kotlin has become prominent, representing the pinnacle of Android development.
The two companies have worked in harmony since the introduction of Android Studio in 2013, which is entirely based on IntelliJ. This partnership, which has been going on for more than a decade, has proven to be mutually beneficial. IntelliJ extended Kotlin beyond Android development, while Google deepened its Kotlin integration for Android development.
According to statistics, Kotlin is clearly ahead of Dart
Jetpack Compose and Kotlin Gradle
As for Google, Kotlin’s dominance in Android development became even more evident with the introduction of Jetpack Compose in 2019. This framework, exclusively based on Kotlin, further cemented Kotlin’s connection to native Android development.
Additionally, the Gradle build environment has moved from Groovy to Kotlin. As a result, the vast majority of the Android development ecosystem now revolves around Kotlin, cementing its status as the obvious first-class citizen for Android development.
Kotlin Cross Platform (KMP)
JetBrains has expanded Kotlin’s reach beyond Android development by focusing on iOS development and web development through Kotlin Multiplatform Development.
This strategy sets Kotlin apart from other mobile development frameworks like React Native, Xamarin, and Flutter because it functions more as a platform than a framework. Unlike these frameworks, Kotlin Multiplatform doesn’t dictate the entire architecture of your app, but rather allows you to extend existing native iOS and Android projects.
In order to ensure easier integration of the Multiplatform framework into the Android environment, Google employees actively contributed to its development. This collaboration made it possible to harmonize the framework with the Android operating system, thus simplifying development processes on this platform.
This flexibility allows you to seamlessly transition from pure native to cross-platform development as needed, allowing developers to adapt their projects as their requirements change.
I got into it myself some time ago and noticed its unique approach, which sets it apart from other frameworks that allow for cross-platform development. I foresee the potential of Kotlin Multiplatform even though it is still in its infancy.
3. Kotlin Cross-Platform (KMP) vs Flutter
As mentioned above, Kotlin Multiplatform is actually different from other mobile development frameworks, it is a platform, not a framework.
So it’s not really an apples-to-apples comparison, given that Kotlin Multiplatform, in its early days, still relies heavily on native development, especially in the specific area of iOS UI and Android.
Jetpack Compose + Kotlin Multiplatform
However, in recent years, JetBrain switched Jetpack to Compose Kotlin Multiplatform and called it Compose Multiplatform.
This allowed the native user interface for iOS and Android to be developed simultaneously, extending the platform upwards and reducing the need to work on both platforms.
This advancement made it a major competitor to Flutter itself. Although not made by Google, it is heavily supported by Google.
There she is discussion on redditrevealing the potential of KMP in this area.
What is Flutter’s value proposition for Google?
Flutter began as a strategic move for Google, aimed at addressing areas as diverse as its investment in the growing mobile development landscape and mitigating risks associated with the Java dispute between Oracle and Google.
However, Kotlin’s remarkable success, along with the promising potential of Kotlin Multiplatform and Google’s strong collaboration with IntelliJ, have reshaped the mobile development landscape, diminishing Flutter’s initial value to Google.
Flutter is still a Google success
Despite this, Flutter has also seen significant success, as evidenced by its adoption by major vendors such as Alibaba, ByteDance and Google itself, along with applications such as Google Pay and Google Earth. Additionally, there is a thriving Flutter community that continues to advocate for its adoption.
Although the Fuchsia team has experienced some downsizing, the project remains active for now.
I’m betting on Google’s next actions
My prediction is that Google will probably keep Flutter around for the foreseeable future. It remains one of the best cross-platform frameworks for mobile development, if not the first choice. So I doubt that Google will suddenly abandon it like Xamarin, whose support ended on May 1, 2024.
What’s more likely is a phasing out of the Flutter and Dart teams, a slowdown in development, while Google looks at its dominance in the mobile landscape, its partnership with JetBrains, community engagement and the direction of its technology.
Personally, while I’m not a fan of the mobile framework, I hope Google doesn’t completely abandon Flutter like it did for many others, given the community’s significant reliance on it. At the very least, I hope Google will consider opening it up for community support before making a final decision.
I wish all the best to my fellow Flutter developers!
source: “Is Flutter nearing her end?” (by Elya – One Eye Developer)
and you
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